Pushkinskaya st. 43. office 10
Rostov-on-Don, Russia
344082
e-mail: info@hjournal.ru 
tel. +7(863) 269-88-14

cubsEN (2)

The Results of the Economic Development of the Russian Federation in Q1 2019: the Economic Crisis is Getting Worse

The Results of the Economic Development of the Russian Federation in Q1 2019: the Economic Crisis is Getting Worse

Journal of Economic Regulation, , Vol. 10 (no. 2),

The development of the Russian economy in Q1 2019 is analyzed. Previous experience shows that in Russia even one first quarter of the year (along with long-term trends) is sufficient for more or more accurate forecasting of not only the results of the year, but also the subsequent development of the economy. The main major sectors of the economy and foreign economic relations of Russia in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the first quarter of 2018 are considered. The emphasis is on the dynamics of natural indicators. At the same time, the industry compares the data on the volume of production shown by Rosstat and the corresponding data of transport statistics. It establishes a significant excess of the former compared to the latter, which is interpreted as a decrease in the share of the shadow economy, not fixed by Rosstat in its generalized indicators for industry. Particular attention is paid to the results of March 2019 in the industry. Due to the lack of data, a number of assessments are approximate and expert. An analysis of the results of the first quarter of 2019, and especially of March 2019, indicates a serious aggravation of the economic crisis in Russia. The rate of decline of the economy has increased compared with the average annual rate of decline in 2008–2015. The reasons are the reduction of fixed assets, employment and Western sanctions. The long-term effects of the crisis are considered.


Keywords: Russian economy in the 1st quarter of 2019; economic crisis in the Russian Federation; the intensification of the economic crisis in the Russian Federation; errors of economic statistics Rosstat

References:
  • Khanin, G. I. and Fomin, D. A. (2013). The Economic Crisis has Emerged in Russia – Most Likely, for a Long Time. Terra Economicus, 11 (2), 11–15.
  • Federal State Statistics Service (2019). Report “Information on the socio-economic situation in Russia, January – March 2019”, Moscow.
  • Federal State Statistics Service (2019). Report “Socio-economic situation in Russia, January-March 2019”, Moscow.
Publisher: Ltd. "Humanitarian perspectives"
Founder: Ltd. "Humanitarian perspectives"
Online ISSN: 2412-6047
ISSN: 2078-5429