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Russian economic development factors in 2015

Russian economic development factors in 2015

Journal of Economic Regulation, , Vol. 5 (no. 4),
p. 62-68

The author analyzes the main trends of financial markets development in the United States and Russia, which emerged in recent years. Identifies and describes the influence-factors of global and national economy in 2015.
According to estimates of the Bank of Russia, there are five possible scenarios for Russia's economic development, depending on oil prices and the nature of the sanctions of the West. The Bank of Russia suggests that the average price on URALS oil will be in the range from 105 to 84 USD per barrel. In addition, the Bank of Russia suggests that the sanctions will have an impact on economic growth mainly in 2014, while the 2015 could be the year of economic recovery.
This author shows you other more negative development scenarios that can become a reality if new external factors unaccounted for in the forecasts. This author shows that 2015 could be a repeat of the crisis of2008, given the dynamics of oil prices, exchange rate cycles and financial markets.
If requested to identify hazards, it is possible to prevent the crisis in the economy and to restore growth faster. In particular, after the 2008 crisis, which lasted more than a year, the economy of the country for two years and quickly recovered the main economic indicators to pre-crisis levels. Although the performance of the stock market remained at pre-crisis levels.


Keywords: cycles strengthening of the dollar; oil prices; economic growth; stock market; credit crisis

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Publisher: Ltd. "Humanitarian perspectives"
Founder: Southern Federal University
ISSN: 2078-5429